Link: What Tharman said in Jan 2008...
Here's a quote from the blog entry above made by Lucky Tan.
How can good long term investments whose risks are thoroughly assessed plunge by 50-80% within 8 months?
I would have agreed with Lucky Tan if I haven't actually seen it myself.
Ever heard of a quote "A rising tide lifts all boats"? Basically, it means that majority individuals will benefit from the economy when it's doing well, and vice versa.
A stock that plunges 50-80% doesn't mean that the company isn't safe. It can also mean that the company is riding the low wave just like every other company in the current dire economic situation.
I follow Amazon's stock price closely, even if I don't buy it. They fell from over US100 to US35 per share after the Lehman incident. I call that market correction — a 75% drop back to reality. But I also know that Amazon's a strong company, with great management and leadership. That's not reflected in the share price drop. Today, few months later, the share price has increased to over US60 per share. That price represents the strategy Amazon has taken over the years, a more telling picture of how they are doing in the current economy.
If you ask me, good investments can plunge to near bankruptcy levels. But if the management is good, the investment is still considered safe, and is still good for investment.
What's more challenging is to single out companies that are doing badly not because of the current economic crisis, but because they don't have any sound business strategies.
One should not just look at numbers. More important are people inside the company who contribute to that number.